The U.S. economy stands at a critical juncture, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions under scrutiny. Despite political pressure to lower rates, recent inflation data presents a challenging outlook,

The June data still reflects only the initial impact of Mr. Trump’s global trade war. Economists expect price pressures to intensify over the coming months, especially if new tariffs the president has threatened against the European Union and a host of other countries in recent days are imposed on Aug. 1 as planned.