The labor market, while slowing, remains resilient. Initial claims – an established predictor of changes in the level of unemployment – have been trending downward. The four-week moving average of initial claims has been falling since Oct.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Monday the U.S. central bank is likely to lower its interest rate target further over time as inflation pressures continue to cool. “Monetary policy remains in restrictive territory to support the sustainable return of inflation to our 2 percent goal,

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams expects inflation to continue to decline to a 2% annual pace, but not in a linear fashion.

As for the U.S.'s economic outlook, Williams expects real GDP growth to come in at ~2.5% for the year, or perhaps "a bit higher," reflecting solid supply-side growth. In addition, he expects unemployment to be at ~4-4.